Figure 2
From: Generalized Thompson sampling for sequential decision-making and causal inference
Panel a: An exemplary probability tree to represent the agent’s prediction model about its environment. The probability of a realization (written under the leaves) is calculated by multiplying the probabilities starting from the root until a leave is reached. The immediate children of any note resolve the value of a single random variable. Note that the two hypotheses are statistically indistinguishable. Panel b: The probability tree resulting from (a) after intervening .