Figure 3

Epidemic considered for the validation of the surveillance system design algorithm. The top plots show the emerged predicted outbreak patterns determined by epidemic invasion fronts driven by food and human mobility in which food and people acted as a vehicles and vectors of transmission respectively. As for cholera (data from (Convertino M, S L, M A, Morris S: Importance, Interaction, and Scale-dependence of Cholera Outbreak Drivers: Metamodeling Predictions, submitted)) and H5N1 (WHO data), water and birds are also vehicle and vector, respectively, contributing to the spreading of the pathogen. Salmonella epidemic data are from CDC. Here, both water networks and bird mobility are neglected since the search is focused on human-manageable network on which perform surveillance. The bottom plots are the transmission networks of the epidemics considered. For cholera, transmission networks are based on (Convertino M, S L, M A, Morris S: Importance, Interaction, and Scale-dependence of Cholera Outbreak Drivers: Metamodeling Predictions, submitted). The food network is built using the radiation model (Convertino and Hedberg 2014a; Simini et al. 2012) and the human mobility network is based on airline data (www.oag.com).